West Ham Proper

I’m a lifelong gamer as well as just a football fan, and I’m often surprised just how often these two pastimes overlap – after all football is just a game, and videogames share a lot of the same facets as real sport. A great blog post from videogaming guru Frank Lantz, actually written about American Football but just as applicable (I think) to football, sums up what I think I find most fascinating about the game that we spend so much time following.

Among many other things, Football is a sort of folk sociology, it is a very large-scale experiment in understanding subtle and counter-intuitive truths about cause and effect, talent and results, determinism and randomness.

I think he’s totally right. I think one of the major pleasures I get out of the game is seeing a group of people interact on the pitch, and seeing just how they do that effectively. And then researching how the levels and standards of preparation either do or do not determine the results that are gained. Speaking personally, it’s not so much that I crave success, but I am fascinated how that success is achieved.

But Lantz goes further (either into the subject or up his own rectum, you decide)…

It is also a sort of folk epistemology, challenging us to consider the limits of our ability to measure and understand the world as possibility space, to find patterns in data, to distinguish signal from noise, to predict the behavior of complex systems and make truthful claims about them.

I think this is actually the more crucial aspect of being a football supporter, and it certainly gets to the very heart of what I spend most of my time thinking about with regards to West Ham. Recognising the limits of our own (or West Ham’s) knowledge, and of understanding to what point we should be passionate and at what point rational, is I think the most crucial decision that we take as fans.

I often find that one of the things that is distinctive between fans, is the extent to which minds are made up and then changed. In fact I think it’s a crucial part of being a football supporter. For example I’m not in the slightest bit enamoured with the prospect of signing Benni McCarthy, but if he scores a hat-trick on his debut no doubt my opinion would change. But to what extent? Does it invalidate my previous misgivings? Probably not. It’s these contradictory signals that we have to deal with as fans.

I think one of the weaknesses that I continually detect in other fans is this lack of understanding of what Lantz refers to as ‘epistemology’. Because to have to consider the limits to what we know, and how certain we are of what we know, and the reliability of any given signal, is just so much of a mindfuck that it can really turn the simple act of supporting ones team into such a complex area of study that it becomes bewildering.

But Lantz treasures this aspect of appreciating sport, and I totally agree with him.

And the amazing thing is that Football is both of these things while being primarily a folk art. Those who crunch its numbers in order to analyze its nonholonomic constraints and unlock the secrets of its eigenvalues do so out of a sense of deep pleasure, compelled by an experience that is simultaneously scientific and aesthetic.

So next time you consider following the Hammers to be a waste of time, consider this high-brow approach. Inspirational stuff imo.

It seems to not involve Zola very much. Sullivan announced what he felt our policy should be in the January window in a press conference, then presumably ran it by Zola that evening. Apparently they agreed to get one striker immediately, and then another one and a defender (presumably a right back) by the end of the transfer window. Zola has not been mentioned by Sullivan in a multitude of interviews since.

I’m not sure how I feel about owners deciding who to buy. I’m not so naive to think it doesn’t happen elsewhere in football, but it’s an idea that as little as five years ago used to be held in distaste in this country. I didn’t know how to judge Nani’s eye for a player either when he joined the club, but at least he was brought into the club on that basis by others – Sullivan has effectively hired himself as our chief scout, and director of football. I have serious misgivings.

Grab any set of football supporters around a table in a caff for five minutes and you’ll probably come up with exactly the same set of names that we seem to be strongly linked with. The days of Francos and Diamantis coming out of the blue seem to be over – get used to buying known quantities from other Prem clubs. This means we will be paying a premium both in fees and wages – the upside is that we will be getting players who presumably know what they’re doing in this league (one of the main criticisms of Nani’s signings).

Apparently agent Barry Silkman is at the heart of what Sullivan is doing in the transfer market. I only knew him because of his made-public comments wishing an agonising death from cancer on Bobby Robson after a dispute. Classy stuff. But a quick google search tells us that he was mentioned in the Stevens enquiry on corruption in football alongside Pina Zahavi. I don’t need to hear any more for the alarm bells to be ringing!

I don’t trust David Sullivan or David Gold. I’m fearful for the future of my club. I’m not convinced by what they’ve said so far. I’m worried that the club is going to go backwards under their stewardship.

I’m happy that the club has been bought, and that there is some sense of security for the future. A takeover absolutely needed to happen, I don’t dispute that, because sooner or later the finances would have come to a head. Either in terms of relegation or administration or something similar.

It worries me that the only way these two can find to impress us is by mocking those who came before. It seems cheap. Yes, Magnusson was wild with his player contracts, but also was doing so on behalf of a billionaire owner at the time. Without his crazy contracts we might never have had Upson and Parker – presumably Sullivan and Gold won’t be selling those two to right Eggy’s wrongs? No, thought not. A bit more decency from our owners please, a few less cheap shots.

It remains to be seen where Sullivan and Gold really stand on the ‘crazy wages’ they are criticising. Today we are linked with Van Nistelrooy, Benni McCarthy, Benjani. I bet you that none of those are on less than £50k a week. Wouldn’t it be ironic for them to criticise Eggy’s contracts, and then hand one out a few days later. And if they hand out a long contract to any of these aging stars I suggest we grab our pitchforks and march on Upton Park.

The more I study Sullivan’s comments on the financials, the less I am happy with them. He wants us to be convinced that West Ham are in a desperate financial state, and few of us need convincing of that, but this figure of £110m debt is misleading – it makes no distinction between the long-term and the short-term, According to many reports half of Sullivan’s initial payment has already been transferred to financing debt, a fact which few media outlets seem to have cottoned on to. I think 95% of West Ham fans think that £105m is going to be disappearing into an Icelandic pocket before this debt is even tackled, but the reality is far more complex than that. I am pretty sure that if you dip into the balance sheet for any Premiership club, you can make it sound as good or as bad as suits you on any given day.

Sullivan is also very keen to mention money that had to be raised in January had he not come along as our saviour. But we just don’t know what would have happened. He wants us to think that one of our star players would be sold, but that isn’t necessarily the case. Presumably he intends to let Upson’s contract run down and allow him to leave on a free transfer instead – that’s a £12-15 million loss (plus a few million in wages) that he has just decided upon in a press conference, and before he even spoke a word to the manager. I’m not saying we should sell Upson, I just think the new owners are being dreadfully simplistic about the situation.

Then you have the sleights on the other bidders, which has already prompted clear responses from them in the media. Sullivan wants us to think he was the only viable bidder, which is clearly completely untrue. Both Cellini and Fernandes are absolutely clear that they had the money to buy the club, and Fernandes is particular seems by all accounts (except Sullivan’s) to have been extremely close to the purchase on Monday night.

Sullivan wants us to think that West Ham is a purchase made for non-commercial reasons. Absolute bollocks I’m afraid. And if it were true I suggest Sullivan would have been much better advised to buy a hospital wing or an orphanage, much greater for the public good and lacking any future debts. West Ham is a business that seems to have at least doubled in value since Gudmundsson bought it 4 years ago, despite the financial climate, in the richest league in the World, and West Ham are almost uniquely positioned to be the best bet outside the top echelons of the league to make progress. If you believe that Sullivan bought the club for any other reason than the fact it’s a highly lucrative prospect I’m afraid you are incredibly gullible.

I also consider the comments about the Olympic stadium to be total speculation to very cheaply boost his popularity. I’m sure we’d all love to rent the stadium after the Olympics, but this is hardly a new idea – what is he going to achieve that the previous owners haven’t? When questioned on the theory that the Olympic stadium is not built in a way that would support football he rather casually brushed off the issue. I wonder if a single phone call has been made to attempt to promote his theory that our chances of getting the Olympic stadium are “50/50”.

I take total exception to Sullivan’s comments about the playing staff – the idea of a 58-year-old property developer telling the manager (and the media) that we have too many midfielders and not enough strikers is both counter-productive and totally disingenuous. We can argue over whether Diamanti or Jimenez are midfielders or strikers (they are probably both), but revealing your hand in the transfer market before you’ve even spoken to the manager is idiotic at best. Presumably clubs and players will be driving a nice hard bargain as Sullivan attempts to prise away the striker he thinks we so desperately need to stave off relegation.

I’m also not sure of the logic of begging for further investment during your press conference after taking over a football club. Particularly after you have tried to make out that the club is in the worst state humanly possible. The pitch seems to be that they want other investors to throw money at them in an act of charity. Like a form of national service for any Hammers fan who has made money. I presume anyone with a few million and any sense was guffawing at their TV screens hearing this little gem.

Meanwhile, not a word in the entire press conference or accompanying interviews about the training facilities, arguably the most important issue for the long-term improvement of the club, and particularly the West Ham academy..A glaring omission.

And these are just my concerns about the press conference. Since then, the rumours suggest that they tried to shift Scott Duxbury, realised (shock horror) that it costs money to pay off a Premier League CEO, and have since reconsidered the decision. What a mess. No solid news yet on Nani, though the prevailing rumour is that he will be gone sooner or later.

I don’t think the club will be run this shambolically in practice. I’m happy to accept that these are shrewd businessmen with good experience, well-placed to help reduce our debts and provide stability. But I’m just not impressed by them. I’m not.

“It makes no commercial sense to buy this club” says David Sullivan, who now owns, along with David Gold, 50% of West Ham United, an option on the other 50%, and strategic control.

A club in the Premier League, the golden calf of all the football leagues. In a well-connected area of London. With a huge fanbase. With the Olympics coming in 2 years. I’d be licking my lips at the prospect of buying into that, debts or no debts.

Perhaps the football bubble has burst and I have missed it. But from where I sit I see Premier League clubs that seem to be doubling or tripling in value and making their owners fortunes. For example, David Sullivan and David Gold bought Birmingham City for £1 and sold it for £80m.

With Duxbury gone, and Nani under serious threat, it certainly looks like the end of the ‘project’, at least in the form that we knew it up until now. Good riddance, say many. An idiotic decision, in my opinion.

One report lists Sullivan and Gold’s principal targets. Mathieu Flamini, Jo, Yakubu and Benjani.

I could have drawn up that list for free.

The same sort of high-wage high-price targets that Eggert Magnusson brought in at crippling expense to the club. Whether Everton want to part with their second-choice striker, or whether Benjani will be offered another £60k-a-week contract at 31, remains to be seen.

Ok, I am a dreadful old cynic – why can’t I be enthusiastic about the new owners? And in one respect I am – the situation clearly needed sorting out. But the soundbites today and the news coming from within the club fills me with dread – another total change of emphasis, style and direction is the last thing the club needed at this point.

West Ham seem to have a frustrating tendency to do just enough to keep their nose above the waterline, but not enough to drag themselves totally out of the swamp.

Looking at the Wolves fixture next Sunday, a win could conceivably take us up to 12th or 13th and the borders of mid-table. So I’m assuming we will draw or lose the match – to win it just wouldn’t fit with the alignment of the planets this season.

Of course, being logical for a moment, it will surely be likely that having been given a chance to escape the relegation zone, we will at some point take it. It was January last season that totally transformed our season from a relegation scrap into a battle for Europe. It could happen this year.

We need crucial players to be fit, that is certain. Parker is the latest casualty, probably our best performer this season. We desperately need Cole back, if only to free up Franco to play in the hole as he did so successfully earlier in the season. Noble is such a steady performer – we miss his consistency. The only plus I can see in the injury situation is that there is no excuse for tiredness from the players that have been out – we should be getting stronger in the Spring when other teams are tiring.

Rumours persist about possible sales in January. I think it depends where we are at the end of the month. If we’re looking pretty safe, and if Gabbidon is fit, then I would sell Upson for £12m if possible and take the cash while it is available. It’s gambling with the squad, but to the long-term benefit of the club I think. Of course it depends if that offer is available, and if Nani has a cheap replacement in mind.

And if we’re still near the foot of the table on January 31st, then we must hang on to everyone. Upson will lose millions from his market value in the next 6 months, but we’ll have to swallow the loss. I think the club are savvy enough to realise the situation. We need to do enough to remove relegation from the equation – if it means hanging on to players I’m sure the club will do that.

People talk about potential fire-sales at the club, but that has never actually happened – it’s conspiracy theory thinking, and merits no serious contemplation. The only fire-sale in the time I have supported the club was when we were last relegated, and Cole, Johnson and Kanoute were sold to keep us out of administration. The current situation is a cake-walk in comparison.

There simply aren’t any serious problems at the club that a couple of wins couldn’t solve. As long as the finances don’t collapse, and there have been plenty of positive noises on that situation. I think Zola is doing a good job in the circumstances. I think we have good players and a good squad if only it was fit. The strange fixture list and the injuries to key players have really crocked our season so far, and we have to be realistic about that. I still say the future looks brighter than at any time in the last decade.

It’s like one of those days when you get a parking ticket and the freezer breaks. It’s frustrating, and we want to blame the world and their dog for it. But being realistic, we’ll get over it, and fairly quickly.